Tomorrow Will Be The Day...

The CCAA has posted that the cutoff is in fact March 22nd!!

I have some inside info that packages are in transit and will be delivered tomorrow. Hopefully our agency will get theirs too! Pretty confident that tomorrow will be the day we see the face of the child we have prayed and cried for, for almost 4 years.

Too excited/tired for words really...

I was up until 6am playing with my new blogstuff and Kate was up at 9:00. Finally finished it! I think I put about 14 hours into it... Yeah.. I'm slow.. but I learned a lot! I still need to figure out why my links are blue.. but I'll leave that for another day...

What do you think?

Birthday Rumors!!

What a great birthday present... good rumors reported on Rumor Queen!

38 Months - 2 or 3 to go!!!

It looks like May referrals are here, delayed about 2 weeks (NOT due to Swine Flu according to the C**A) Reports out of Europe state that they will be through March 14th! A good 6 day batch!

Tomorrow we will be celebrating our 38 Month LID-aversary. We now are 8 LID's away from being matched. My calculations bring us to being matched in the next 2 referral sets. Now the big question is how long will the next 2 sets take?

With the fact that they are either really late with May or decided to do 2 batches at once I'm not sure. If we still see a referral batch in early to mid June, then I would say then we will be referred in July. If this latest batch was a combined batch then I don't expect to see Hope's face until August

July or August... either way... she is on the way!

Time to find a second crib and that double wide stroller I have been wanting!

30 Months

Even though I haven't seen the official cut-off being announced, I believe based on referrals I've seen, I can safely say the October batch cut off date was February 15th 2006. 6 days.

We are now officially 35 LID days away from being matched. We just celebrated 30 months waiting.

So based on the 6 day batch nothing has changed for my prediction on when we might see Hope's face for the first time. However, this last dismally small batch has kept me from getting my expectations up for more than a 6 day average in the upcoming months.

If the average number of days referred from now until they get to us is 6 days then we should be matched in April, travel in May. If they speed up a bit: 7 or 8 days March referral travel in April or 9 days February referral, travel in March.

Praying for 9 day averages going forward, but also praying that the I800 will not be a nightmare and disqualify us after our long, excruciating wait.

Where We Are...

I can't believe it has been over 2 months since my last post. A lot of family and friends have been asking where we are in our adoption of Hope, I thought I would post today.

We have been officially logged in for 27 months. The families who were matched with their children this month waited just over 29 months.

China just matched 5 days and families with LID's through January 25th 2006. There are 56 days until they reach our LID.

In the last year, the CCAA has matched an average of 6 days per month, 56/6 = 9.3. So at this point if they continue with a 6 day average we should see a referral in 10 months? May? A possible 37 month wait?? And don't forget to add about 6 weeks to travel and 2 more weeks until we bring her home...

Yes folks.... maybe another year yet...

Playing with numbers...

I'm Back...

...from vacation that is. Our vacation was just what the doctor ordered. I am hesitant to dive back into reality, but here's my 2 cents on referrals.

I felt that this last batch of 8 days was better of course than the 5 day that we had in October in number of days and poll families matched, but not really back to 'normal'.

While I was away my adoption agency sent out it's usual notice that referrals had gone out as well as another note warning us about visiting rumor sites. I realize that there are people who can get caught up in the RUMORS but I have believe that Rumor Queen is the best source we have to finding the FACTS. Below are the last 6 months of referrals based on RQ's polls, showing the number of days and the number of poll families matched.



Using the number of families matched is a much better way to estimate what will happen next... of course in this ever changing environment this is of course shaky on a long term basis. So here's what I'm thinking for next month.



I will be happy with 10 days but not surprised with 7 days,of course the header for 5 days speaks for itself!

Let Me Try Again... Some Hopefulness

Soooooo..... my theory on how far the CCAA would get this month seems to have been blown out of the water due to end of the year ceiling and possibly a large amount of expedited referrals.

I now know that the end of the Chinese fiscal year is November 30th, I can't make any guesses on what will happen for the next two referral sets, assuming that the December 1st batch will reflect the 'end of the year'.

I was coming up with guesses based on poll information but now we know that SN and Expedited referrals have priority and we can't predict how many poll families will be matched either.

So I just wanted to share with you some numbers I came up with that might give everyone a boost.

LID days per batch averages:

• The current overall (22 months) - 10.45


• The last 12 months - 9.42


• The last 6 months - 5.83 (ugh)


• Overall before processing Oct. 05 - 12.76


• Overall before processing Nov 05 - 11.86

So the million dollar question? Is this slow down due to the large nature of November, SN turn over, expedited families and the end of the year ceiling, OR is it just the new norm??

I'm still glass is half full... I'm thinking once we start the new fiscal year, things are going to start to get back to the way they were before they began processing November... 12 day averages, at least until they start referring March, then I don't know what they will do.

In this case I still won't see a referral before the end of the school year, but I am hoping before September.

My 2 cents.

Pie In The Face

Dear Family and Friends... It looks like referrals are in and the cut off was only November 30th.

If we are using poll numbers this is one of the smallest months ever... 68 families as opposed to the average of about 127 they have been doing in recent months.

Am I upset????

Hmmm.... oddly I feel a strange calm. I even baked this beautiful pie today.

Those of you who know me in real life know that I have been going through an exceptionally needy time ever since school started and that I hate being the 'victim' type...

But today of all days, I am feeling calm. I'm not exactly sure of the reason but I think it is a combination of the amazing outpouring of support from my family, friends and fellow bloggers, the cold calls I have been making to adoption agencies 'just to see what they have to say' and they are telling me to 'sit tight' or the new Bible study I started three weeks ago on Daniel which is really strengthening my relationship with God and helping me to focus on the here and now.

So thank you to everyone in my real life: The Perfect Nerd, Chris, Mom, Janis, Judy, Kim, Amiee and Tracy.

And my bloggy friends Lisa, Kelly, Nikki, K1, Kimberly, Kris, Sophia's Mom, Amy and anyone who actually comments here!

You all have kept me from losing my mind!
________________________________________________________

There is one other thing.... I have a theory...

If anyone knows when the fiscal year ends in China, please let me know. I've asked at RQ and no one replied. I'm thinking it's November. Also, there is some speculation that some of the CCAA workers are matching families with January LID's. This would mean that those workers have already matched their December families right?

If I'm right, and if there is a quota in place only allowing out so many babies per year then the CCAA might be at the end of their quota. They have plenty of babies to match (and of course plenty of families) but they can only match so many before the end of the year.

So instead of matching them all now and skipping next month, they split them up and matched some now and will match the rest of their quota in November.

The good news would be, (if my theory is correct) that the December and early 2008 batches could be quite a bit larger due to being able to 'start over' with their quota.

What do you all think???

And seriously... doesn't that pie look amazing??? I don't want anyone to eat it! I just want to look at it!!

Is pride a bad thing???

Why I Thought 4 Days Was - Okay...

This is a visual of how I got the idea that the 4 day batch wasn't horrid. The numbers next to each LID date are the number of families logged in for that day. I took this straight from RQ's current poll.

The purple are the actual last 4 months and the pink are my prediction based on the numbers. Of course these are just my guesses... This also looks like the rumor about all of December in December could happen. Basically January 2nd referrals (if they keep coming in the first week of the month) would finish December and start January...

(Click on chart for a better view)

Now of course I am praying that at some point they pick up the 'current pace' and that I am all wrong, but for now this seems logical.

Keeping my HOPE's and HEART in check...

CCAA Has Spoken...4 Day

I was on my way to bed, but my computer lured me! I just happened to check the CCAA website!

Well, here we have it... September referral mystery solved. Congrats to all the November families getting their referrals. This will be an exciting time.

I think I'll go play with some spreadsheets...

Update: I changed this whole update from this morning. I goofed on my adding up the matched families... not enough coffee. It is even more optomistic than I realized!

Every month referrals come out and the numbers seem low it can be very depressing. Especially this 4 day batch. Yet this batch is not bad.

Most of us look at "How Many Days" were matched. If we instead look at the last few referral batches in "Number of Familes" * matched goes like this:

June - 6 days - 114 families
July - 7 days - 138 families
Aug - 7 days - 120 families
Sep - 4 days - 136 families (not 106 like I had this morning!)

So what will next month look like? According to the polls the number of families logged in are as follows.

11/26 - 1
11/27 - 0
11/28 - 30
11/29 - 3
11/30 - 34
12/1 - 1
12/2 - 0
12/3 - 1

12/4 - 3

12/5 - 45


72 total families through the 4th., 142 if they add the 5th. So will October's cut off be December 4th with 72 families or December 5th with 117 families? Now the 5th looks very feasible...I'm hoping for the 5th...and a 10 day batch!!!

* These numbers are based on those who participate at Rumor Queen and is representative of a small percentage of the whole.

Interesting Coincidence

I know I usually don't post what's on Rumor Queen, let alone two days in a row, but I can't help but be struck with the irony. Here is a quote from todays RQ blog regarding the current wait...

"When we hit September 1st last year they had referred through July 22nd. And as of right now they’ve referred through November 21st with us thinking this next batch may go through November 24th. That’s four months in one year. There is no way to put a positive spin on that. Sure, you could say at least they haven’t brought the program to a complete standstill, but that’s about all I can come up with.

We knew October and November were big, and that November was going to be hard to get through. But, this is really hard. "

Dear friends, this statement hit me like a brick. My LID is exactly 4 months from 11/22/05. In the 17 months I have been logged in, each month I have expected the wait to be ‘another year’. I am hoping NOW that they actually get through those 4 months in the next year, or will the wait continue to grow?

Another LID coincidence happened when we were moved to the Matching Room. There is only one batch of LID's that the CCAA split during review. It was March 2006. They ended the first batch on March 22, 2006 (my LID). It would be months later before the CCAA finished review of the rest of March '06. I found it very lucky to barely make the cut-off, yet it was very unsettling to see the rest of March families wait and worry.

• Now here we are... a year a way? I don't know.
• How many months before they even start matching March families?
• When they start matching March families, how will we be split?
• How many months will it take to get through one of the biggest referral months ever? November '05 might take 5 months, will March be longer?
  
  Something's Gotta Give!!

The Rumor Mill

Join me on the bumpy ride we like to call the Adoption Rollercoaster!

Here's what was going around the rumor mill at China Adopt Talk yesterday...

"August 30th, 3007
I’m told that someone with a lid of Nov 25th has been told she is not included in this batch.

I’m not ready to consider this a done deal, but it is not looking very good right now. "

Now today's rumor...

"August 31st, 2007
A second European Agency is now saying “with almost complete certainty” that some of December will be in this batch.

This is a very reliable agency and they have my complete attention with this one.
They basically say that they are positive that the 24th is in, and can say “with
almost complete certainty” that some of December will be in this batch.

This one gets an R3½

I absolutely hate it when people get their hopes up only to have them smashed on the rocks of reality. I hope that this doesn’t happen this time. But, there are two agencies saying it, and one of them has been reliable in the past."

I'm praying for today's rumor this will definitely point to an increase in matching and move us much closer to referral.

Spreadsheet Therapy

Some days, when I'm not shopping for baby clothes, playing with spreadsheets makes me feel better. Yet when I'm done, with either, I am still no closer to my daughter. They are still just beautiful clothes hanging in a closet and guesses as to when.

I am praying today for a miracle. That God will work on all those involved in adoption, everywhere, making it easier for children in need, to reach families in need.

Here is a spread sheet that shows referral rates by 7-15 day averages.

Average LID Days Referred per Month
Last 6 Months : 8
Last 19 Months: 11

The overall average was 13 days before they started processing November, thus skewing our overall average. So to be on the hopeful side. I do not believe that the average will continue at such a slow rate. I'm hoping for somewhere between 11 & 13.

Judge for yourselves!

China Update

I have NOT posted in the last few months when there has been a change in the Chinese adoption world, largely because most of my audience is on the same Roller Coaster I am and don't need the Play By Play.

So I am going to post today to get my family and friends up to date on our adoption progress. Can anyone say, "Year of the Snail"?


OUT OF REVIEW

• The CCAA has reviewed all dossiers logged in (LID) through June 30, 2006, as of this week.
• Now they have 13 months of dossiers sitting, waiting for the CCAA approval, pray for these people.
  

MATCHED

• The first week of July, the CCAA matched families with LID's from November 8 - 14, 2005. (7 days this cycle, this stinks)
• This leaves 128 LID days until they reach our LID, March 22, 2006. (our golden ticket)
• This also leaves 7.5 months to match that are currently in the Matching Room, add the 13 more waiting - over 20 months behind overall.

LYNN's LAW of AVERAGES

Glass is EMPTY theory: If the CCAA continues at the snail pace of matching 2-9 days each cycle, (I'll go with 7 day average) it will take (128/7=18.28) another 20 months before we are referred! I won't even figure that month out...

Glass is FULL theory: If the CCAA picks up its pace once November is all matched (big month for adoption requests) say 15 - 20 days per cycle. Then the overall average might move up to 15. (128/15=8.53) or 9 more months - April 2008 referral.

Glass is HALF FULL theory: (my bet) I believe that the overall average will become larger, but not sure if it will make it to 15. So if we go with the mid line between 7 & 15, OR 11, then (128/11=11.63) or ANOTHER YEAR. - July 2008 referral.

Oh, yeah, Don't forget to tac on 2 more months until we travel, and a referral in June may end us in China during the Olympics. Then we will have to re-mortgage the house for airfare (Just kidding, I think?)

At this point, I believe we will have another Christmas, another school year, and very possibly another summer, without a referral. I am deeply saddened by the thought of this. Chris is growing into a young man before my eyes and I can't imagine another year without a sister for him or a daughter us, or a baby at home to care for.

My actual wish at this point would be an early April 2008 referral, travel by mid-May and be home for Chris' last 2 weeks of 6th grade. This or sooner...

If we truly must wait until the fall of 2008 to unite with Hope, it will be a 3 year wait, as we began our official journey on October 17, 2005, expecting no more than a years wait.

So, I am asking for prayer - The prayer that never fails, "Thy will be done." and the strength and patience to live with the outcome. I still believe that this is where we should be - Waiting for Hope - however hopeless it may seem.

6 DAYS... DOWN 135 TO GO

As the Mary Engelbreit card Jim gave me a few weeks ago said...

"EVER FORWARD, BUT SLOWLY"

Sheeesh... this is slow!

So when are they going to get April out of review?

This is No Kiddie Ride

Early this month rumors out of China were 'unbelievably' good.

We had 3 full weeks to dream about a possible speed up...

Now we are getting very close to referrals and rumors are not very good.

I guess we won't know until the ride is over, but it looks like we are back to the same old thing.

Waiting in line.


Best news of the week! I might be able to squeeze in a free ride with USCIS. My I-171H expires the end of August. If I renew after July 30th but before mine expires, I get a freebie!!

Analysis From An English Major!

Yesterday, L&J asked what my predictions were following the 'ghastly' last two cycles of referrals! So here it is!

The '# of days to get through 141 LID days' is based on the 141 days from 11/1/05 - 3/22/06 (my LID). Hopefully there is some logic here..

THANK GOD!

April was full of disappointment as far as our adoption goes. In the beginning of the month the CCAA referred only 2 days. I was so distraught I never even posted on it.

Then our 13 month anniversary came and went and I didn't even know it... that could be good and bad! As I have been busy with SPRING!

Yesterday I had trouble getting out of bed... I was just out of it all day... I cried several times during the day and went to bed just overwhelmed with fear for our adoption and sadness for the wait.

However this morning the Rollercoaster has taken an upswing... It looks like the CCAA will be referring 6 days this month! It is not huge but it is more than was expected.

For us to receive our referral in the early months of 2008 the CCAA will have to keep up an average of 15 days per cycle. Which they were maintaining until this month. The 2 & 6 really have messed up the 'average'.

The news seems to be that November is also an unusually large month. But once they get through November I am hoping that we will see a larger number of days referred for December - February LID's to balance the averages!

Hanging in there...

CCAA Update!!!

On Monday the rumors turned quickly into fact when October families began to receive their referrals.

The CCAA processed referrals through October 24 but a few families with October 31st LID's got theirs as well. However, at least one family with a 24th LID was skipped.

This referral batch showed a whopping 11 days of LID's after a 32 day wait. Yet the RQ polls show that those 11 days had around 224 families, so this is in keeping with the average number of babies referred each month. This is not a slow down. There were just a lot of families logged in, in the month of October.

My predictions have not changed, I believe we are still going to be referred sometime in December or January. However, at this point with 5 months of families in line in front of us... it is just too early to tell!

The best news is that ALL of March is now out of Review and into the Matching room and the CCAA is still updating their web-site with Document Processing updates!

Not bad news, not a miracle, just status quo!